When will the new pope be chosen? The election begins after the previous pope dies or resigns, when the Camerlengo confirms the death and key officials secure the Vatican. Generally, the conclave starts 15 to 20 days after the sede vacante (vacant seat) is declared. During conclave, cardinals under age 80 gather in the Sistine Chapel and vote every morning and afternoon until one receives at least two-thirds of the votes present. This evergreen explainer outlines fixed rules, ordinary timelines, and the procedural steps that reliably determine when the next pope will be chosen.
Key triggers that start the process
The timeline depends on how the papacy becomes vacant. If a pope dies, the Camerlengo and senior officials confirm death, seal the papal apartments, and arrange the funeral. If a pope resigns, as Benedict XVI did in 2013, the effective date and the start of sede vacante are known in advance. In either case, the College of Cardinals receives official notification, and the Vatican Secretariat of State coordinates with security and administrative teams. These steps are procedural; they do not depend on personalities, but on laws of the church and civil protocols.
Fixed conclave rules and procedures
Catholic canon law sets the framework for when the conclave will actually convene. Universal norms are consistent, even if small adjustments occur by papal discretion. The key rules are:
- Only cardinals under the age of 80 may vote.
- The conclave must begin between 15 and 20 days after the seat is declared vacant, unless circumstances require adjustment.
- Voting occurs twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon until a pope is elected.
- Election requires a two-thirds supermajority of those present and voting.
- Cardinals must remain in seclusion; communications are restricted during the conclave.
Who votes and where they gather
Eligible electors are cardinal electors: cardinals appointed by a pope before turning 80. The number varies by papacy but is typically up to 120. Eligible cardinals gather in Rome and move to the Domus Sanctae Marthae for residence during the conclave. Voting takes place in the Sistine Chapel, with ceremonies and rituals prescribed by apostolic constitutions such as Universi Dominici Gregis. Non-electors, including lower-ranking clergy and staff, assist with logistics but do not vote.
Voting mechanics and balloting patterns
Each morning and afternoon session follows a structured pattern. Cardinals write the name of their choice on a ballot, fold it, and place it on a tray. A presiding cardinal counts, and if necessary a runoff occurs until one name reaches the required supermajority. Votes are burned immediately after counting; white smoke signals a successful election, black smoke indicates no result. After election, the dean of the College of Cardinals asks the newly elected pope about his name and immediately bestows the papal name.
Typical timeline from vacancy to election
While exact dates can vary, the sequence is highly standardized. Below is a concise timeline showing what usually happens and how long each phase tends to last. Times are approximate and subject to practical adjustments.
| Time or Event | Verified Detail | Source Type |
|---|---|---|
| Death or resignation of pope | Official determination by the Camerlengo and senior officials | Apostolic constitution and Vatican protocol |
| Announcement of sede vacante | Within 24–72 hours; governs start of conclave timeframe | Holy See communications and norms |
| Conclave to begin | 15–20 days after sede vacante is declared | Universi Dominici Gregis (norm; allowed flexibility) |
| Balloting period | Typically a few days; votes held morning and afternoon | Historical conclave records and rules |
| Election concluded | When one cardinal receives two-thirds supermajority | Election norms and precedents |
| White smoke and Habemus Papam | Shortly after election is confirmed and new name chosen | Conclave tradition and public proclamation |
Extraordinary adjustments and edge cases
Health emergencies, travel restrictions, or prolonged conclave deliberations can shift the calendar. The rules allow some flexibility, but the core requirement—a two-thirds supermajority—remains unchanged. If the conclave reaches its 15th day without a result, rules permit cardinals to adjust procedures, yet the threshold for election stays fixed. Historical precedents show variability in duration, but the governing principles provide stability across contexts.
What to watch for when the next conclave begins
Observers can track key milestones to estimate when a new pope will be chosen. Reliable indicators include:
- Official confirmation of the vacancy by the Camerlengo and senior clergy.
- Public notice of the conclave start date, normally 15–20 days later.
- Arrival and registration of cardinal electors in Rome.
- First morning and afternoon ballots and their results.
- Smoke signals from the Sistine Chapel chimney and the subsequent public proclamation.
Tracking these steps gives a clear, factual view of progress without speculation. Consistency in process is the norm; deviations are rare and carefully governed by law.